Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
